DELTA DANGER | Our lagging vaccination rate is new cause for concern

YOUNGSTOWN — Ohio's lagging vaccination rate hasn't affected case numbers — until now.

During a Wednesday news conference, Ohio Department of Health Chief Medical Officer Dr. Vanderhoff said, after seeing falling case numbers for weeks, the state reported an uptick in COVID-19 infections.

Based on available data, the delta variant is to blame.

The mutation first discovered in India is more contagious than the original coronavirus and causes more serious illness.

Statewide situation

Nationally, 55.6% of all Americans have received at least one COVID-19 shot, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of Wednesday, 48.26% of Ohioans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

The number of new daily doses administered in Ohio has fallen sharply – from nearly 90,000 in early April to less than 6,000 on July 14.

Given the increased prevalence of the delta variant in Ohio, health officials fear this could translate to a surge in cases.

The delta variant made up less than 1% of the state's infections between May 9 and May 22. During the last two-week period with complete data, June 6 to June 19, the delta variant accounted for 15% of COVID-19 infections in the state.

Emerging data for June 20 to July 3 shows the proportion likely more than doubled, said Vanderhoff.

After reaching a record low of 1.3% in mid-June, the average test positivity rate throughout the state has gradually risen to 1.7%.

Mahoning Valley data

Taking a look at week-over-week data in the Mahoning Valley, evidence of delta's hold isn't very clear. In the last three weeks, new cases in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties have remained fairly steady.

Mercy Health Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Jim Kravec said he's not seeing an increase in hospitalizations, either.

"As far as overall cases, I think we're relatively flat to where we were over the last couple weeks, which is a very good thing," he said. "We still see patients in our hospitals. We still see patients in our walk-in care centers. But, as far as admitted patients, so far, we're at a good state and not seeing a big uptick."

But, the next week will be telling.

While Ohio's vaccination rate trails the national rate, the Mahoning Valley rate lags behind the state.

Only 46.87 percent of Mahoning County residents, 44.56 percent of Trumbull residents and 37.71 percent of Columbiana residents have gotten at least one shot.

The endgame

The virus coming into contact with a vaccinated person "is like hitting a brick wall," is how Dr. Andy Thomas, chief clinical officer at the Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center, described the protection of the vaccines.

With an unvaccinated person, "it's like Velcro," he added.

All three doctors — Vanderhoff, Thomas and Kravec — continued to emphasize the increased importance of getting the COVID-19 shot.

The vaccines provide "very high rates of protection against delta hospitalizations and deaths," Vanderhoff said. But, for the unvaccinated, "the risk just keeps getting greater and greater."

In discussing the importance of getting vaccinated, Kravec said hospitals continue to see people who didn't get vaccinated catch the virus, get hospitalized and die.

"Completely preventable, if they were vaccinated," he said.

And, timing is critical, as it takes about six weeks to get full immunity from the vaccine, Vanderhoff noted.

"With fall and cooler weather approaching, we need to prepare," he said.

This story was originally published July 15, 2021 at 4:11 AM with the headline "DELTA DANGER | Our lagging vaccination rate is new cause for concern."