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WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Coronavirus surging into election week

By Jess Hardin

November 2, 2020 3:52 AM

COLUMBUS — Heading into election week, the coronavirus pandemic in Ohio isn't just getting worse — it's getting worse at an alarming rate.

Unlike the state's previous spikes, this one is steep, and there are no signs of letting up.

Between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31, Ohio reported 18,828 new confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the third week in a row the state has set a new weekly record.

Oct. 11 to Oct. 17: 12,047 cases
Oct. 18 to Oct. 24: 14, 717 cases
Oct. 25 to Oct. 31: 18,828 cases

On Oct. 30, the state set a sobering new record: 3,745 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in a single day.

If you dismiss the surge as a result of increased testing, you should take a closer look.

The state also set a new record for most hospitalizations in a single week; 1,126 Ohioans were hospitalized last week for COVID-19.

Meanwhile, the state's average test positivity rate has more than doubled since mid-September. On Sept. 24, the seven-day positivity average hit a low of 2.7 percent. On Friday, the average was 6.7 percent.

Oct. 25 to Oct. 31 in numbers

Of Ohio’s 206,549 total reported confirmed cases as of Nov. 1, 31,300 are presumed to be active infections.
There have been 1,126 new hospitalizations; a total of 19,220 people have been hospitalized to date.
Between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31, 92 Ohioans have died due to COVID-19. The state has reported 4,990 confirmed deaths to date.
Ohio is reporting 11,140 people have recovered from the virus between Oct. 25 and Oct. 31. The state has reported 170,259 total recovered cases.

Ohio Public Health Advisory System map

During his Thursday briefing, DeWine released an updated map for the state's Public Health Advisory System. There are now 43 counties in Level 3 "red" — the most since the map was released. Just two counties are "yellow."

As of Thursday, 83 of Ohio's 88 counties are considered to have a high incidence of virus transmission; these are counties that have seen more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents in the past two weeks.

"The virus is raging throughout the state of Ohio. There's no place to hide," DeWine said during his Thursday address. He also again urged Ohioans to rethink holiday plans.

While DeWine continues to beg Ohioans to don face coverings, he has begun to emphasize the role of personal responsibility in combatting the virus.

DeWine on Thursday said the state is relying on Ohioans' sense of personal responsibility to slow the spread of coronavirus, rather than "mask police."

"Ohioans have been able to dramatically increase mask-wearing. We saw this back in July when we had a statewide mask order," resulting in 85 percent to 90 percent compliance in some areas, he said.

"When we saw that, we saw cases go down. We can do this again," DeWine said. "We don't have the ability to have 'mask police' everywhere. We rely on the goodwill of the people of the state of Ohio.

DeWine is also calling on local governments to "redouble" their efforts in combatting the virus.

In terms of stemming the spread locally, Mercy Health Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Jim Kravec said, for the most part, schools and businesses are already doing a great job. The issue lies in the public's perception of the pandemic, he said.

"Where I see opportunity is, really, a small percentage of the population that is not following the distancing and the masking," Kravec said. "Some people don't 'buy' what we're telling them. It's hard to get through to people that don't believe the message."

Surge in the Valley

Mahoning County remains at "red" on the alert map and is also considered to have high incidence of coronavirus spread. The county reported 318 new cases in the last two weeks, 139.06 new cases per capita.

The county now meets four of the state's seven risk indicators for coronavirus spread: new cases per capita; increasing numbers of new cases; the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities; and increasing outpatient visits for COVID-like illnesses.

Between late August and mid-September, Mahoning County saw the lowest-ever numbers of new cases and hospitalizations per day, according to Mahoning County Public Health's COVID-19 dashboard. Though new cases have skyrocketed — the county marked its highest single-day total, 67 new cases, on Oct. 15 — daily hospitalizations have remained in the single digits.

"I think we have capacity now. We actively monitor this every day and, really, the numbers on the Mahoning County dashboard are really the best indicators," Kravec said. "As a level-1 trauma center, we are prepared for increased numbers.

"But we need to make sure we reduce the hospitalizations so we continue to keep room for the people who are sick."

ICU bed occupancy in Mahoning County has hovered between about 65 percent and 75 percent for weeks, according to ODH. That includes non-COVID patients. But the portion of COVID-19 patients in the ICU rose steadily from 5.5 percent on Oct. 14 to 12.6 percent on Oct. 26.

Mahoning County on Tuesday reported 78.5 percent ICU occupancy, nearly meeting the state's 80 percent risk threshold under the Ohio Public Health Advisory System map.

Trumbull County was upgraded to "red" on Thursday and is considered a high incidence county. In the past two weeks, Trumbull County reported 232 new cases, 117.19 new cases per capita.

It meets four risk indicators: new cases per capita; increasing numbers of new cases; the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities; and increasing outpatient visits for COVID-like illnesses.

Columbiana County remained at "orange," but is also considered a high incidence county. In the past two weeks, Columbiana County reported 119 new cases, 116.80 cases per capita.

It meets three risk indicators: new cases per capita; the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities; and increasing outpatient visits for COVID-like illnesses.

Testing

The recent volume of virus testing statewide continued steady gains over the week. So far this month, agencies statewide administered an average of 9,171 more tests per day than in September.
The average percent of positive tests continues an upward trend that began Sept. 24, when positivity was at an all-time low.

The seven-day moving average for positive tests was 6.7 percent on Friday, the highest since July 14 and more than double the average 2.7 percent reported on Sept. 24, which was the lowest since the pandemic began. That average percent peaked on April 20 at 23.6 percent.

Coronavirus week by week

Here's a breakdown of how each complete week of the pandemic has looked like in Ohio so far. Data in bold reflect the peaks in new cases, deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions.

March 15 to March 21

New cases: 221
New deaths: 3

March 22 to March 28

New cases: 1,159
New deaths: 22
New hospitalizations: 261
New ICU admissions: 123

March 29 to April 4

New cases: 2,333
New deaths: 77
New hospitalizations: 662
New ICU admissions: 203

April 5 to April 11

New cases: 2,448
New deaths: 140
New hospitalizations: 853
New ICU admissions: 246

April 12 to April 18

New cases: 3,752
New deaths: 192
New hospitalizations: 660
New ICU admissions: 188

April 19 to April 25

New cases: 5,044
New deaths: 237
New hospitalizations: 596
New ICU admissions: 178

April 26 to May 2

New cases: 3,554
New deaths: 279
New hospitalizations: 581
New ICU admissions: 128

May 3 to May 9

New cases: 4,023
New deaths: 264
New hospitalizations: 604
New ICU admissions: 134

May 10 to May 16

New cases: 3,276
New deaths: 243
New hospitalizations: 570
New ICU admissions: 100

May 17 to May 23

New cases: 3,452
New deaths: 299
New hospitalizations: 567
New ICU admissions: 129

May 24 to May 30

New cases: 3,351
New deaths: 182
New hospitalizations: 574
New ICU admissions: 119

May 31 to June 6

New cases: 2,769
New deaths: 210
New hospitalizations: 449
New ICU admissions: 102

June 7 to June 13

New cases: 2,485
New deaths: 176
New hospitalizations: 404
New ICU admissions: 104

June 14 to June 20

New cases: 3,169
New deaths: 136
New hospitalizations: 337
New ICU admissions: 79

June 21 to June 27

New cases: 4,907
New deaths: 101
New hospitalizations: 423
New ICU admissions: 83

June 28 to July 4

New cases: 6,519
New deaths: 96
New hospitalizations: 487
New ICU admissions: 136

July 5 to July 11

New cases: 7,840
New deaths: 123
New hospitalizations: 659
New ICU admissions: 116

July 12 to July 18

New cases: 9,356
New deaths: 95
New hospitalizations: 743
New ICU admissions: 143

July 19 to July 25

New cases: 9,050
New deaths: 164
New hospitalizations: 632
New ICU admissions: 126

July 26 to Aug. 1

New cases: 8,484
New deaths: 207
New hospitalizations: 785
New ICU admissions: 138

Aug. 2 to Aug. 8

New cases: 7,453
New deaths: 150
New hospitalizations: 569
New ICU admissions: 97

Aug. 9 to Aug. 15

New cases: 7,345
New deaths: 150
New hospitalizations: 784
New ICU admissions: 113

Aug. 16 to Aug. 22

New cases: 6,117
New deaths: 148
New hospitalizations: 568
New ICU admissions: 109

Aug. 23 to Aug. 29

New cases: 6,778
New deaths: 150
New hospitalizations: 539
New ICU admissions: 78

Aug. 30 to Sept. 5

New cases: 8,168
New deaths: 127
New hospitalizations: 520
New ICU admissions: 80

Sept. 6 to Sept. 12

New cases: 6,374
New deaths: 149
New hospitalizations: 476
New ICU admissions: 56

Sept. 13 to Sept. 19

New cases: 6,347
New deaths: 198
New hospitalizations: 466
New ICU admissions: 87

Sept. 20 to Sept. 26

New cases: 5,871
New deaths: 123
New hospitalizations: 435
New ICU admissions: 72

Sept. 27 to Oct. 3

New cases: 7,221
New deaths: 178
New hospitalizations: 550
New ICU admissions: 72

Oct. 4 to Oct. 10

New cases: 8,872
New deaths: 72
New hospitalizations: 620
New ICU admissions: 106

Oct. 11 to Oct. 17

New cases: 12,047
New deaths: 70
New hospitalizations: 654
New ICU admissions: 114

Oct. 18 to Oct. 24

New cases: 14,717
New deaths: 137
New hospitalizations: 997
New ICU admissions: 166

Oct. 25 to Oct. 31

New cases: 18,828
New deaths: 92
New hospitalizations: 1,126
New ICU admissions: 154

This story was originally published November 2, 2020 at 3:52 AM with the headline "WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Coronavirus surging into election week."