WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Herd immunity might be a fantasy. So what’s Ohio’s endgame?

COLUMBUS — In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, Ohio's fight against COVID-19 was a battle to be won.

More than a year later — due to quickly circulating variants and vaccine hesitancy — we might be forced to acknowledge the virus is here to stay.

The New York Times last week reported experts believe the U.S. may never reach "herd immunity." The virus might not disappear but, rather, become a more manageable chronic threat to circulate for years.

Gov. Mike DeWine addressed the report in his briefing last Monday.

"If you have not been vaccinated, the risk to you is certainly more significant," the governor said. "People who've been lulled into a sense of complacency or a sense of security — that's a false sense of security.

"Ohio is coming back strong, but my caution is: If you have not been vaccinated, this is a high-risk gamble."

Ohio officials have seen the number of new vaccinations statewide "go down dramatically."

Between March 28 and April 3, the state administered more than 460,000 first doses of the vaccine. Last week, less than 122,000 Ohioans received their first dose of the vaccine.

But for the third week in a row, the state reported decreasing COVID-19 case numbers. As a result, the state has moved closer to its reopening goal.

DeWine promised the state can reopen when it reports 50 cases per 100,000 people over two weeks. Three weeks ago, the rate rose to 200 cases per 100,000 — four times the state goal.

Last week, it decreased to 140.2 cases per 100,000.

May 2 to May 8 in numbers

• 6,575 new confirmed cases were reported in Ohio; a total of 908,990 confirmed cases have been reported as of May 8.
• There have been 798 new hospitalizations; a total of57,287 people have been hospitalized as of May 8.
• Between May 2 and May 8, 140 COVID-19 deaths were reported. The state reported19,425 COVID-19 deaths in Ohio as of May 8.
• Ohio is reporting12,605 people have recovered from the virus between May 2 and May 8. The state reported 1,033,667 total recovered cases as of May 8.
• As of May 8, 41.29 percent of the state population has received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. That's an increase of 121,994, down from 155,312 first doses the week before.

Ohio Public Health Advisory System map

On Thursday's update to the Ohio Public Health Advisory System map, 43 counties are orange, up from 39 the week before; seven are yellow, up from four. The rest are red.

Columbiana County remained orange. Mahoning and Trumbull counties remained red and are both considered to have a high incidence of coronavirus spread. The number of new cases per capita has increased in Mahoning and Columbiana counties.

• Mahoning County reported 345 new cases, or 151 cases per 100,000 people, an increase from 148 cases per 100,000 people last week;
• Trumbull County reported 257 new cases, or 130 cases per 100,000 people, a decrease from 145 new cases per 100,000 people last week;
• Columbiana County reported 131 new cases, or 129 cases per 100,000 people, an increase from 125 cases per 100,000 people last week.

All three counties meet the indicators for new cases per capita and the proportion of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities.

Trumbull County also met the criteria for increasing number of new COVID-19 cases.

Testing

• The weekly volume of virus testing statewide steadily decreased since reaching an all-time peak on Nov. 25.
• The seven-day moving average for positive tests was 3.7 percent on Thursday. That average reached an all-time low of 3 percent in early March and peaked April 20 at 23.6 percent.

Vaccinations

• As of Saturday, 4,826,414 Ohioans have started to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, including 93,127 in Mahoning County, 76,993 in Trumbull and 33,775 in Columbiana.
• Statewide, 41.29 percent of Ohioans have started to receive the vaccine.
• All three counties trail the statewide rate:
  • Mahoning County: 40.72 percent;
  • Trumbull County: 38.89 percent;
  • Columbiana County: 33.15 percent.

Coronavirus week by week

Here's a breakdown of how each complete week of the pandemic has looked like in Ohio so far. Data in bold reflect the peaks in new cases, deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions.

March 15 to March 21

• New cases: 221
• New deaths: 3

March 22 to March 28

• New cases: 1,159
• New deaths: 22
• New hospitalizations: 261
• New ICU admissions: 123

March 29 to April 4

• New cases: 2,333
• New deaths: 77
• New hospitalizations: 662
• New ICU admissions: 203

April 5 to April 11

• New cases: 2,448
• New deaths: 140
• New hospitalizations: 853
• New ICU admissions: 246

April 12 to April 18

• New cases: 3,752
• New deaths: 192
• New hospitalizations: 660
• New ICU admissions: 188

April 19 to April 25

• New cases: 5,044
• New deaths: 237
• New hospitalizations: 596
• New ICU admissions: 178

April 26 to May 2

• New cases: 3,554
• New deaths: 279
• New hospitalizations: 581
• New ICU admissions: 128

May 3 to May 9

• New cases: 4,023
• New deaths: 264
• New hospitalizations: 604
• New ICU admissions: 134

May 10 to May 16

• New cases: 3,276
• New deaths: 243
• New hospitalizations: 570
• New ICU admissions: 100

May 17 to May 23

• New cases: 3,452
• New deaths: 299
• New hospitalizations: 567
• New ICU admissions: 129

May 24 to May 30

• New cases: 3,351
• New deaths: 182
• New hospitalizations: 574
• New ICU admissions: 119

May 31 to June 6

• New cases: 2,769
• New deaths: 210
• New hospitalizations: 449
• New ICU admissions: 102

June 7 to June 13

• New cases: 2,485
• New deaths: 176
• New hospitalizations: 404
• New ICU admissions: 104

June 14 to June 20

• New cases: 3,169
• New deaths: 136
• New hospitalizations: 337
• New ICU admissions: 79

June 21 to June 27

• New cases: 4,907
• New deaths: 101
• New hospitalizations: 423
• New ICU admissions: 83

June 28 to July 4

• New cases: 6,519
• New deaths: 96
• New hospitalizations: 487
• New ICU admissions: 136

July 5 to July 11

• New cases: 7,840
• New deaths: 123
• New hospitalizations: 659
• New ICU admissions: 116

July 12 to July 18

• New cases: 9,356
• New deaths: 95
• New hospitalizations: 743
• New ICU admissions: 143

July 19 to July 25

• New cases: 9,050
• New deaths: 164
• New hospitalizations: 632
• New ICU admissions: 126

July 26 to Aug. 1

• New cases: 8,484
• New deaths: 207
• New hospitalizations: 785
• New ICU admissions: 138

Aug. 2 to Aug. 8

• New cases: 7,453
• New deaths: 150
• New hospitalizations: 569
• New ICU admissions: 97

Aug. 9 to Aug. 15

• New cases: 7,345
• New deaths: 150
• New hospitalizations: 784
• New ICU admissions: 113

Aug. 16 to Aug. 22

• New cases: 6,117
• New deaths: 148
• New hospitalizations: 568
• New ICU admissions: 109

Aug. 23 to Aug. 29

• New cases: 6,778
• New deaths: 150
• New hospitalizations: 539
• New ICU admissions: 78

Aug. 30 to Sept. 5

• New cases: 8,168
• New deaths: 127
• New hospitalizations: 520
• New ICU admissions: 80

Sept. 6 to Sept. 12

• New cases: 6,374
• New deaths: 149
• New hospitalizations: 476
• New ICU admissions: 56

Sept. 13 to Sept. 19

• New cases: 6,347
• New deaths: 198
• New hospitalizations: 466
• New ICU admissions: 87

Sept. 20 to Sept. 26

• New cases: 5,871
• New deaths: 123
• New hospitalizations: 435
• New ICU admissions: 72

Sept. 27 to Oct. 3

• New cases: 7,221
• New deaths: 178
• New hospitalizations: 550
• New ICU admissions: 72

Oct. 4 to Oct. 10

• New cases: 8,872
• New deaths: 72
• New hospitalizations: 620
• New ICU admissions: 106

Oct. 11 to Oct. 17

• New cases: 12,047
• New deaths: 70
• New hospitalizations: 654
• New ICU admissions: 114

Oct. 18 to Oct. 24

• New cases: 14,717
• New deaths: 137
• New hospitalizations: 997
• New ICU admissions: 166

Oct. 25 to Oct. 31

• New cases: 18,828
• New deaths: 92
• New hospitalizations: 1,126
• New ICU admissions: 154

Nov. 1 to Nov. 7

• New cases: 28,815
• New deaths: 189
• New hospitalizations: 1,263
• New ICU admissions: 146

Nov. 8 to Nov. 14

• New cases: 42,719
• New deaths: 190
• New hospitalizations: 1,681
• New ICU admissions: 182

Nov. 15 to Nov. 21

• New cases: 50,721
• New deaths: 235
• New hospitalizations: 2,142
• New ICU admissions: 207

Nov. 22 to Nov. 28

• New cases: 58,933
• New deaths: 361
• New hospitalizations: 2,044
• New ICU admissions: 214

Nov. 29 to Dec. 5

• New cases: 57,915
• New deaths: 512
• New hospitalizations: 2,697
• New ICU admissions: 262

Dec. 6 to Dec. 12

• New cases: 64,866
• New deaths: 436
• New hospitalizations: 2,844
• New ICU admissions: 281

Dec. 13 to Dec. 19

• New cases: 50,291
• New deaths: 441
• New hospitalizations: 2,750
• New ICU admissions: 332

Dec. 20 to Dec. 26

• New cases: 42,714
• New deaths: 352
• New hospitalizations: 1,960
• New ICU admissions: 206

Dec. 27 to Jan. 2

• New cases: 40,482
• New deaths: 450
• New hospitalizations: 2,120
• New ICU admissions: 221

Jan. 3 to Jan. 9

• New cases: 44,611
• New deaths: 485
• New hospitalizations: 2,424
• New ICU admissions: 238

Jan. 10 to Jan. 16

• New cases: 39,688
• New deaths: 441
• New hospitalizations: 1,991
• New ICU admissions: 197

Jan. 17 to Jan 23

• New cases: 29,204
• New deaths: 452
• New hospitalizations: 1,637
• New ICU admissions: 162

Jan. 24 to Jan. 30

• New cases: 24,335
• New deaths: 375
• New hospitalizations: 1,450
• New ICU admissions: 175

Jan. 31 to Feb, 6

• New cases: 17,780
• New deaths: 437
• New hospitalizations: 1,342
• New ICU admissions: 150

Feb. 7 to Feb. 13

• New cases: 13,159
• New deaths: 3,554
• New hospitalizations: 1,015
• New ICU admissions: 93

Feb. 14 to Feb. 20

• New cases: 9,405
• New deaths: 350
• New hospitalizations: 825
• New ICU admissions: 98

Feb. 21 to Feb. 27

• New cases: 9,476
• New deaths: 412
• New hospitalizations: 880
• New ICU admissions: 107

Feb. 28 to March 6

• New cases: 7,386
• New deaths: 419
• New hospitalizations: 651
• New ICU admissions: 75

March 7 to March 13

• New cases: 6,770
• New deaths: 380
• New hospitalizations: 668
• New ICU admissions: 61

March 14 to March 20

• New cases: 7,019
• New deaths: 311
• New hospitalizations: 583
• New ICU admissions: 58

March 21 to March 27

• New cases: 7,835
• New deaths: 183
• New hospitalizations: 588
• New ICU admissions: 63

March 28 to April 3

• New cases: 9,342
• New deaths: 116
• New hospitalizations: 619
• New ICU admissions: 63

April 4 to April 10

• New cases: 9,596
• New deaths: 173
• New hospitalizations: 741
• New ICU admissions: 79

April 11 to April 17

• New cases: 10,418
• New deaths: 170
• New hospitalizations: 823
• New ICU admissions: 102

April 18 to April 24

• New cases: 8,003
• New deaths: 129
• New hospitalizations: 771
• New ICU admissions: 82

April 25 to May 1

• New cases: 7,576
• New deaths: 167
• New hospitalizations: 848
• New ICU admissions: 94

May 2 to May 8

• New cases: 6,575
• New deaths: 140
• New hospitalizations: 798
• New ICU admissions: 97

This story was originally published May 10, 2021 at 4:00 AM with the headline "WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Herd immunity might be a fantasy. So what’s Ohio’s endgame?."