Buyers face unexpected opportunity after new housing market shift

Over the last year, experts have been predicting a relatively flat housing market in 2026. While this doesn't create the excitement of the early 2020s, it also comes without some of the volatility that veteran investors have experienced the last two decades.

A flat housing market works best for investors with sound fundamentals. It often doesn't produce the flashiest returns, but the ability to protect against downside while building longterm wealth is always attractive. The only real disruptor to this kind of market is a "black swan event" - a rare, high-impact occurrence that reshapes the landscape. The war in Iran has become one, and BiggerPockets' Dave Meyer says it's already reshaping the trajectory of the housing market.

"How is the war in Iran affecting the housing market? I've been saying for years that a black swan event can always dramatically shift real estate dynamics. Well, here it is," Meyer said on Friday's episode of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast.

Meyer added, "In the last month, the war has reshaped the trajectory of mortgage rates, inflation, consumer sentiment, and more. And of course, all of these factors will impact home values. And spoiler alert, the impact is probably not good."

BiggerPockets' update on current market

Meyer's April 2026 update centers on what has happened to mortgage rates in just the last month. After dipping to 5.99% in February, the average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed back to the 6.3-6.5% range. Per the BiggerPockets update, this erases nine consecutive months of affordability gains that homebuyers had started to feel.

The reversal, Meyer says, is being driven by rising inflation tied to the war. The April 10 Consumer Price Index reading showed inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% in a single month, a jump Meyer calls "ugly." And because mortgage rates track closely with 10-year Treasury yields, which are highly sensitive to inflation, Meyer explains rates are likely to stay elevated.

"As long as we have higher inflation, we're going to have upward pressure on mortgage rates," Meyer said. "I personally think that we're not getting back towards six at least in the next couple of weeks and maybe for months or more."

But while Meyer's outlook on the broader market is cautious, he says the same conditions creating the slowdown are quietly opening a window for real estate investors paying attention. And it isn't just full-time investors who stand to benefit. Everyday homebuyers who have spent the last few years priced out or outbid are finding themselves in a market that has some dynamics shifting in their favor.

"We are entering a buyer market," Meyer said. "In a correction, you go into a buyer market. That means you have the power."

More on housing market and mortgage rates:

• Zillow sends blunt message about affordability, housing market
• Redfin sees shift in home prices, housing market
• Home-buying costs are 4 times what buyers expect

The logic, according to Meyer, is straightforward. As uncertainty slows buyer demand and properties sit on the market longer, sellers grow more motivated and competition thins out. The result, he says, is the best environment for acquiring real estate in years, as long as investors are disciplined about what they buy.

The tradeoff reshaping 2026 housing market

The shift Meyer is describing is data-driven. Existing home sales hit one of the slowest paces on record in January, with just 3.9 million units annualized, according to NAR data cited in the episode. Nine consecutive months of affordability gains have started to reverse. And according to the BiggerPockets April 2026 investor survey, cited in Friday's episode, more than 65% of real estate investors now expect the war to have a negative or "very negative" impact on the real estate market over the next three months.

Those same pressures are what can create the opportunity. With fewer buyers active, days on market are climbing. Sellers who need to move are increasingly willing to negotiate.

Additionally, Meyer also sees rental cash flow prospects improving. If prices soften modestly while rents hold steady, the math on a rental property gets better.

Capturing this upside requires discipline and thick skin. Being willing to offer at the price point that makes sense, and being comfortable handling rejections, is all part of the sound fundamentals that turn opportunity into reality in this kind of market. The underlying metrics are concerning, but that's also why many investors will sit on the sidelines.

Key takeaways for real estate investors

• Mortgage rates have reversed course: After dipping to 5.99% in February, the average 30-year rate has climbed back to 6.3-6.5% in April and is expected to stay elevated as long as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target.
• Buyer demand is slowing: Existing home sales hit one of the slowest paces on record in January at 3.9 million annualized, and 65% of BiggerPockets-surveyed real estate investors expect negative housing market impact over the next three months.
• Sellers are becoming more motivated: Days on market are climbing as fewer buyers engage, giving investors and everyday homebuyer) who stay active meaningful negotiating leverage.
• A crash considered unlikely: Year-over-year inventory is down 2%, delinquency rates are below 4%, and homeowner equity is at all-time highs. As Meyer notes, these are all structural buffers against a broader downturn.

Related: Real estate investors get urgent warning after major tax change

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This story was originally published April 18, 2026 at 10:31 PM.