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Ohio has one of biggest targets in Midwest if there’s nuclear war, data shows. Are you at risk?

By Sundi Rose
This map visualizes the average risk of radiation exposure for a large portion of North America in the event of a concerted nuclear attack on US missile silos
This map visualizes the average risk of radiation exposure for a large portion of North America in the event of a concerted nuclear attack on US missile silos Under the Nuclear Cloud

Although nuclear war is still unlikely, global tensions are spiking, and Ohio is home to key military infrastructure that has been tapped as strategically important.

With U.S. and Israeli military operations targeting Iran and the Doomsday Clock sitting 85 seconds to midnight, it’s worth knowing where Ohio stands on the nuclear risk map.

Effects of a full-scale nuclear exchange on the US.
Effects of a full-scale nuclear exchange on the US. MIRA Safety

The website Under the Nuclear Cloud is supported by the Brown Institute for Media Innovation and the Princeton Program on Science and Global Security and offers predictions about the risk from nuclear fallout in the US.

Should Ohio be worried?

Experts say that in the event of a large-scale nuclear conflict, opposing forces would likely target key military infrastructure connected to nuclear deterrence systems, and Ohio has at least one significant installation that qualifies..

Highest risk

According to the Federation of American Scientists, military installations tied to nuclear command, communications, and defense research rank among the highest-priority targets. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, home to Air Force Materiel Command and significant defense research operations, fits that profile.

Because installations like Wright-Patterson house assets critical to the U.S. military's command-and-control infrastructure, they carry elevated strategic importance.

Simulated fallout from a 100,000 kiloton bombs
Simulated fallout from a 100,000 kiloton bombs NUKEMAP/Mira Safety

Lowest risk

Smaller towns without critical infrastructure are at in the lowest danger.

  • Low-population areas
  • Inland regions far from high-risk areas
  • Communities without major military installations, ports or refineries
  • Towns without airports

Is Youngstown or the Mahoning Valley at risk?

Experts say that nuclear targeting is driven by military value, not population size or geography alone.

Youngstown/Mahoning County is not considered a top-tier, first-strike nuclear target. The area does not meet the criteria that would place it at high risk:

  • Far enough inland
  • Not a nuclear sub base
  • Not a national command center
Estimated global nuclear warhead inventories in 2022
Estimated global nuclear warhead inventories in 2022 Federation of American Scientists

What makes a site a strategic target?

Areas are considered strategically high-value if they serve critical national defense functions or house assets vital to a country’s ability to respond after an attack.

Key factors include:

  • Military command and control centers: facilities that coordinate national defense and nuclear responses
  • Missile launch and storage sites: locations housing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine bases, or bomber airfields
  • Defense industry and research hubs: areas that produce or maintain nuclear-capable weapons systems, radar networks, or satellite communications equipment
  • Transportation and energy infrastructure: ports, rail hubs, and power grids that move essential military or industrial material
  • Proximity to adversary or allied Forces: locations near key international borders, coastlines, or allied bases

“Safest” places in the US

John Erath, Senior Policy Director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said “Nowhere is truly ‘safe’ from fallout and other consequences, like contamination of food and water supplies and prolonged radiation exposure.”

However, there are four areas of the US that would be mostly in the clear, according to a NUKEMAP/Mira Safety analysis.

  • West Texas
  • Most of Nevada
  • Michigan
  • Wisconsin

However, Michigan and Wisconsin would likely become uninhabitable in the coming nuclear winter, so realistically, western Texas and Nevada are the two states that hold up best.

What to do in an emergency

IF there is a credible nuclear threat or detonation warning, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has recommendations.

Be prepared for a nuclear explosion
Be prepared for a nuclear explosion FEMA

Where to go

  • Find shelter, fast. You likely have about 10 minutes before dangerous fallout starts to arrive
  • Go to the center of a large building or a basement like brick or concrete structures, underground parking garages, or subways. You can text SHELTER and your zip code to 43362 to find an open emergency shelter
  • Stay in the most protective spot for 12-24 hours

What to have

  • Bottled water and portable water filters. Plan for one gallon per person per day.
  • Non-perishable food and energy bars
  • Flashlights and backup batteries
  • Fire-starting tools
  • Cash
  • First-aid kit
  • Warm clothing and shelter equipment
  • Multi-tool or knife
  • Battery-powered or hand-crank radio
  • Important ID documents
  • Compass and physical maps

Organizations to trust

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This story was originally published March 19, 2026 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Ohio has one of biggest targets in Midwest if there’s nuclear war, data shows. Are you at risk?."