Will the VP debate matter to voters? Experts weigh in on Vance-Walz face-off

Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will soon go toe-to-toe in the first — and likely only — vice presidential debate before the election.

But, while the running mates may be polished and the discussion spirited, the debate likely won’t change many voters’ minds, according to political experts.

The debate will be hosted by CBS News at 9:00 p.m. E.T. It will take place in a studio without a live audience in New York City and last for 90 minutes.

Unlike the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the candidates’ microphones will not be muted throughout the event.

There will be two commercial breaks, during which the candidates will not be allowed to speak with their staff.

Here’s how political experts believe the night could unfold — and what effect it could have on the election.

EXPECTATIONS

“I think that Vance will be polished, tough, and on the attack, and Walz will be ready for him,” Susan Ohmer, an emeritus professor at the University of Notre Dame, who studies media and presidential elections, told McClatchy News.

Throughout the course of the debate, tempers could also become raised, Ohmer said.

Echoing this sentiment, “I suspect it will be less cordial than some that we have seen in the past,” Jacob Neiheisel, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told McClatchy News.

Both men — who are lesser known to the public than Trump and Harris — will likely also spend time framing their backgrounds, Ohmer said.

“Each of them can claim roots in rural America,” she said. “Will Vance refer to his background in Appalachia? Will Walz draw on his experiences in Nebraska and Minnesota?”

While the specific topics have not been released, it’s likely the moderators will raise a few controversial issues, Ohmer said. These include Vance’s past negative remarks on Trump — whom he once compared to Hitler — and Walz’s departure from the National Guard, which he’s been accused of timing to avoid deployment in Iraq.

Moderators could also bring up some of Vance’s “incendiary statements about women,” Paul Beck, an emeritus political science professor at the Ohio State University, told McClatchy News.

Both candidates are expected to touch on a handful of policies and issues that have proven effective in the past, Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News.

Vance may bring up inflation, immigration at the southern border and the Biden Administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, he said.

Walz, on the other hand, could talk about abortion access, Harris’ policies to boost the economy and the U.S. support for Ukraine — which Vance has been critical of, Shapiro said.

“I think both candidates will try to take control of the agenda,” Daron Shaw, a politics professor at the University of Texas at Austin, told McClatchy News.

“That is, both want the debate to focus on the things they think will most help their side win,” Shaw said. “For Walz, that’s keeping the emphasis on Trump. For Vance, that’s shifting the focus onto issues here (that) the American public is dissatisfied and anxious (about), such as high prices and border security.”

As to which candidate will come out on top, it’s difficult to say, experts said.

“We don’t score these things like they might in a debate class, so winning is usually in the eye of the beholder and is probably shaped more by the media coverage surrounding the debate than the debate itself,” Neiheisel said.

Predictably, Republicans will likely see Vance as the winner and Democrats will probably do the same for Walz, Beck said.

WILL IT MATTER?

On the whole, the debate is unlikely to dramatically change the contours of the election, experts said.

“VP debates don’t tend to move the needle,” Neiheisel said. “Those who tune in are disproportionately high-information voters who are more likely to have made their minds up already.”

Voters usually cast their ballots for the presidential candidate, not their running mate, Beck said, so the debate will only have an effect “at the margins.”

“These debates normally have no effect,” Shapiro said, though he noted that a “stellar performance” from one of the candidates could provide a small boost for their campaign.

“A solid performance can be worth several days of good media,” and can “help candidates maintain or reverse momentum,” Shaw said.

There is one reason, though, that the debate could take on more importance than usual: Trump’s age, experts said.

“Vance will be a heartbeat away from a 78-year-old man,” Ohmer said. “That really is important and was a major issue with Biden.”

This story was originally published October 1, 2024 at 7:19 PM.