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WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Advisory map shows Ohio is a sea of red

By Jess Hardin
The Ohio Public Health Advisory System map as of Nov. 12, 2020
The Ohio Public Health Advisory System map as of Nov. 12, 2020

COLUMBUS — The state's coronavirus alert system map was designed to predict trouble.

Counties advance through the system as cases increase and hospitals become inundated with COVID-19 patients.

"We designed this system really to give a good indication of what was coming," Gov. Mike DeWine said Thursday. "But when most everything in Ohio is filled in [with red], the value of these color codes is not really as significant."

With 68 of Ohio's 88 counties in "Level 3" or red, alarm bells are going off across the state. Trouble isn't imminent; it's here.

Between Nov. 8 and Nov. 14, Ohio reported 42,719 new confirmed cases of COVID-19. It's the fifth week in a row the state has set a new weekly record.

  • Oct. 11 to Oct. 17: 12,047 cases
  • Oct. 18 to Oct. 24: 14,717 cases
  • Oct. 25 to Oct. 31: 18,828 cases
  • Nov. 1 to Nov. 7: 28,815 cases
  • Nov. 8 to Nov. 14: 42,719 cases

On March 26, former Health Director Amy Acton predicted Ohio would see 6,000 to 8,000 new coronavirus cases daily at its peak surge. Nearly eight months later, on Friday, the state set a sobering new record: 7,839 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in a single day.

It's no longer possible to dismiss the surge as the result of increased testing.

The state also set a new record for most hospitalizations in a single week; 1,681 Ohioans were hospitalized last week for COVID-19.

Meanwhile, the state's average test positivity rate has more than tripled since mid-September. On Sept. 24, the seven-day positivity average hit a low of 2.7 percent. On Friday, the average was 12.1 percent, up from 8.9 percent Nov. 6 and 6.7 percent Oct. 30.

Nov. 8 to Nov. 14 in numbers

  • Of Ohio's 282,550 total reported confirmed cases as of Nov. 15,74,240 are presumed to be active infections.

  • There have been 1,681 new hospitalizations; a total of 22,265 people have been hospitalized to date.

  • Between Nov. 8 and Nov. 14, 190 Ohioans have died due to COVID-19. The state has reported 5,373 confirmed deaths to date.

  • Ohio is reporting 17,837 people have recovered from the virus between Nov. 8 and Nov. 14. The state has reported 202,937 total recovered cases.

Ohio Public Health Advisory System map

During his Thursday briefing, DeWine released an updated map for the state's Public Health Advisory System. There are now 68 counties in Level 3 "red" — the most since the map was released. Only one county is "yellow."

As of Thursday, all of Ohio's 88 counties are considered to have a high incidence of virus transmission; these are counties that have seen more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents in the past two weeks.

DeWine Thursday announced the state would release two new dashboards: one with information about flu infections across the state and another with COVID-19 cases data by ZIP code of residence.

"We have an obligation to get it out to the public," DeWine said. "We're proud of the progress we've made. ... We're not perfect. We know we have a long ways to go but I think you can see we're making some progress."

Mahoning Matters formally requested statewide ZIP code-level data from the state health department in June but was denied. Mahoning Matters then filed a complaint in the state's Court of Claims.

Since then, health officials in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties have released an updated ZIP code-level data for their counties.

Mahoning County now maintains its own COVID-19 dashboard which includes ZIP code-level data, and Trumbull County is currently developing its own COVID-19 dashboard, to be released soon.

Surge in the Valley

Mahoning County remains at "red" on the alert map and is also considered to have high incidence of coronavirus spread. The county reported 812 new cases in the last two weeks, 355.08 new cases per capita, an increase from 216.02 last week and 139.06 the week before.

The county now meets four of the state's seven risk indicators for coronavirus spread: new cases per capita; increasing numbers of new cases; the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities; and increasing emergency department visits for COVID-19.

Trumbull County remained at "red" alert status Thursday and is considered a high incidence county. In the past two weeks, Trumbull County reported 692 new cases, 349.54 new cases per capita, an increase from 164.16 last week and 117.19 the week before.

It meets three risk indicators: new cases per capita; increasing numbers of new cases; and the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities.

Columbiana County remained at "orange," but is also considered a high incidence county. In the past two weeks, Columbiana County reported 278 new cases, an increase from 272.86, an increase from 164.9 last week and 116.8 the week before.

It meets three risk indicators: new cases per capita; increasing numbers of new cases; and the number of new cases occurring outside group settings such as long-term care or correctional facilities.

Testing

  • The volume of virus testing statewide continues to trend upward. Daily tests administered peaked on Friday when state agencies administered 65,858 coronavirus tests

  • The average percent of positive tests continues an upward trend that began Sept. 24, when positivity was at an all-time low.

The seven-day moving average for positive tests was 12.1 on Friday, the highest since April 26 — when only 3,519 tests were administered — and more than triple the average 2.7 percent reported on Sept. 24, the lowest since the pandemic began. That average percent peaked on April 20 at 23.6 percent.

Coronavirus week by week

Here's a breakdown of how each complete week of the pandemic has looked like in Ohio so far. Data in bold reflect the peaks in new cases, deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions.

March 15 to March 21

  • New cases: 221
  • New deaths: 3

March 22 to March 28

  • New cases: 1,159
  • New deaths: 22
  • New hospitalizations: 261
  • New ICU admissions: 123

March 29 to April 4

  • New cases: 2,333
  • New deaths: 77
  • New hospitalizations: 662
  • New ICU admissions: 203

April 5 to April 11

  • New cases: 2,448
  • New deaths: 140
  • New hospitalizations: 853
  • New ICU admissions: 246

April 12 to April 18

  • New cases: 3,752
  • New deaths: 192
  • New hospitalizations: 660
  • New ICU admissions: 188

April 19 to April 25

  • New cases: 5,044
  • New deaths: 237
  • New hospitalizations: 596
  • New ICU admissions: 178

April 26 to May 2

  • New cases: 3,554
  • New deaths: 279
  • New hospitalizations: 581
  • New ICU admissions: 128

May 3 to May 9

  • New cases: 4,023
  • New deaths: 264
  • New hospitalizations: 604
  • New ICU admissions: 134

May 10 to May 16

  • New cases: 3,276
  • New deaths: 243
  • New hospitalizations: 570
  • New ICU admissions: 100

May 17 to May 23

  • New cases: 3,452
  • New deaths: 299
  • New hospitalizations: 567
  • New ICU admissions: 129

May 24 to May 30

  • New cases: 3,351
  • New deaths: 182
  • New hospitalizations: 574
  • New ICU admissions: 119

May 31 to June 6

  • New cases: 2,769
  • New deaths: 210
  • New hospitalizations: 449
  • New ICU admissions: 102

June 7 to June 13

  • New cases: 2,485
  • New deaths: 176
  • New hospitalizations: 404
  • New ICU admissions: 104

June 14 to June 20

  • New cases: 3,169
  • New deaths: 136
  • New hospitalizations: 337
  • New ICU admissions: 79

June 21 to June 27

  • New cases: 4,907
  • New deaths: 101
  • New hospitalizations: 423
  • New ICU admissions: 83

June 28 to July 4

  • New cases: 6,519
  • New deaths: 96
  • New hospitalizations: 487
  • New ICU admissions: 136

July 5 to July 11

  • New cases: 7,840
  • New deaths: 123
  • New hospitalizations: 659
  • New ICU admissions: 116

July 12 to July 18

  • New cases: 9,356
  • New deaths: 95
  • New hospitalizations: 743
  • New ICU admissions: 143

July 19 to July 25

  • New cases: 9,050
  • New deaths: 164
  • New hospitalizations: 632
  • New ICU admissions: 126

July 26 to Aug. 1

  • New cases: 8,484
  • New deaths: 207
  • New hospitalizations: 785
  • New ICU admissions: 138

Aug. 2 to Aug. 8

  • New cases: 7,453
  • New deaths: 150
  • New hospitalizations: 569
  • New ICU admissions: 97

Aug. 9 to Aug. 15

  • New cases: 7,345
  • New deaths: 150
  • New hospitalizations: 784
  • New ICU admissions: 113

Aug. 16 to Aug. 22

  • New cases: 6,117
  • New deaths: 148
  • New hospitalizations: 568
  • New ICU admissions: 109

Aug. 23 to Aug. 29

  • New cases: 6,778
  • New deaths: 150
  • New hospitalizations: 539
  • New ICU admissions: 78

Aug. 30 to Sept. 5

  • New cases: 8,168
  • New deaths: 127
  • New hospitalizations: 520
  • New ICU admissions: 80

Sept. 6 to Sept. 12

  • New cases: 6,374
  • New deaths: 149
  • New hospitalizations: 476
  • New ICU admissions: 56

Sept. 13 to Sept. 19

  • New cases: 6,347
  • New deaths: 198
  • New hospitalizations: 466
  • New ICU admissions: 87

Sept. 20 to Sept. 26

  • New cases: 5,871
  • New deaths: 123
  • New hospitalizations: 435
  • New ICU admissions: 72

Sept. 27 to Oct. 3

  • New cases: 7,221
  • New deaths: 178
  • New hospitalizations: 550
  • New ICU admissions: 72

Oct. 4 to Oct. 10

  • New cases: 8,872
  • New deaths: 72
  • New hospitalizations: 620
  • New ICU admissions: 106

Oct. 11 to Oct. 17

  • New cases: 12,047
  • New deaths: 70
  • New hospitalizations: 654
  • New ICU admissions: 114

Oct. 18 to Oct. 24

  • New cases: 14,717
  • New deaths: 137
  • New hospitalizations: 997
  • New ICU admissions: 166

Oct. 25 to Oct. 31

  • New cases: 18,828
  • New deaths: 92
  • New hospitalizations: 1,126
  • New ICU admissions: 154

Nov. 1 to Nov. 7

  • New cases: 28,815
  • New deaths: 189
  • New hospitalizations: 1,263
  • New ICU admissions: 146

Nov. 8 to Nov. 14

  • New cases: 42,719
  • New deaths: 190
  • New hospitalizations: 1,681
  • New ICU admissions: 182

This story was originally published November 16, 2020 at 3:52 AM with the headline "WEEKLY COVID-19 TRENDS | Advisory map shows Ohio is a sea of red."